| Résumé
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Water resource
is commonly
considered as one of the most important natural resources in social
development
especially for supporting domestic, agricultural and industrial uses.
During
the last decade, due to the increase of human activities, such as
urbanization
and industrialization, the social impacts on the natural environment
become
more and more intensive. Therefore, recently, water problems compared
to before
become more complicated. To deal with the complex problem, since 1970s,
started
from the companies, people recognized that the Decision Support System
(DSS)
has obvious advantages Moreover, with the development of computer
science and
web techniques, the DSS are commonly applied for supporting the local
decision
makers to manage the region natural resources especially the water
resources.
The hydrological
modelling in charge of representing the catchment characteristics plays
significant role in the Environment Decision Support System (EDSS).
Among
different kinds of models, the deterministic distributed hydrological
model is
able to describe the real condition of the study area in more detail
and
accurate way. However, the only obstacle to limit the applications of
this kind
of model is pointed to the large data requirement requested by its
modelling
set up.
In this study of hydrological modelling
assessment in AquaVar project, one deterministic distributed model
(MIKE SHE)
is built for the whole Var catchment with less field information
available in
the area. Through one reasonable modelling strategy, several
hypothesises are
conceived to solve the missing data problems within daily and hourly
time
intervals. The simulation is calibrated in both daily and hourly time
scale
from 2008 to 2011, which contains one extreme flood event at 2011. Due
to the
impacts of missing data on both model inputs and observations, the
evaluation
of modelling calibration is not only based on the statistic
coefficients such
as Nash coefficient, but also effected by some physical factors (e.g.
peak
values and total discharge). The calibrated model is able to describe
usual
condition of Var hydrological system, and also represent the unusual
phenomenon
in the catchment such as flood and drought event. The validation
process
implemented from 2011 to 2014 within both daily and hourly time
interval
further proves the good performance of the simulation in Var.
The MIKE SHE simulation in Var is one of the main
parts of the deterministic distributed modelling system in the EDSS of
AquaVar.
After the calibration and validation, the model could be able to use
for
forecasting the impacts of coming meteorological events (e.g. extreme
flood) in
this region and producing the boundary conditions for other
deterministic
distributed models in the system. The design of the EDSS architecture,
modelling strategy and modelling evaluation process presented in this
research
could be applied as one standard working process for solving the
similar
problems in other region.
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